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Internal Human Super-Forecasters

2 weeks ago

Toronto, Ontario, Canada Mercor Full time $80,000 - $120,000 per year

Mercor is hiring Internal Human Super-Forecasters on behalf of a leading AI Lab developing the next generation of decision-intelligent systems. This unique role invites you to apply your expert forecasting skills to collaborate with AI researchers and engineers, training, evaluating, and refining models that make probabilistic predictions about strategic events, market shifts, and complex uncertainties.

Responsibilities

  • Work closely with AI research teams to generate, train, and validate human-anchored forecasts on key strategic questions, scenario outcomes, and emerging risks.

  • Apply rigorous probabilistic reasoning, structured judgment, and quantitative techniques to enhance both human and machine forecasting accuracy.

  • Evaluate AI models' forecasts for coherence, calibration, and alignment with structured human judgment — provide expert feedback on model errors and biases.

  • Design, participate in, and review forecasting experiments and challenge frameworks, focused on turning strategic uncertainty into actionable insight.

  • Participate in synchronous collaboration sessions (4-hour windows, 2–3 times per week) to review forecast portfolios, debate scenarios, refine judgments, and align human-machine reasoning.

Requirements

  • Advanced degree or extensive professional experience in Forecasting, Decision Science, Economics, Political Science, Risk Analysis or a related field.

  • Proven track record of making high-quality probabilistic forecasts, scenario analyses, or decision-intelligence insights.

  • Strong competency in probability, calibration, scenario design, and structured judgment techniques.

  • Proficiency with forecasting tools, data visualization, or statistical software (e.g., Python, R, Excel) is highly valued.

  • Excellent written and verbal communication, strong analytical reasoning, and collaborative mindset.

  • Commitment of 20–30 hours per week, including required synchronous collaboration periods.

Why Join

  • Collaborate with a world-class AI research lab to influence how intelligent systems anticipate strategic events, market inflections, and systemic vulnerabilities.

  • Play a key role in shaping the way AI models understand and simulate human forecasting judgment and uncertainty quantification.

  • Enjoy schedule flexibility — choose your preferred 4-hour collaboration windows and manage your 20-30 hour work week around them.

  • Be engaged as an hourly contractor through Mercor, granting autonomy over your schedule while contributing to high-impact forecasting and AI projects.

  • Work alongside leading experts in forecasting, decision science, AI, and analytics — bridging human judgment and machine reasoning.

  • Join a global network of expert forecasters helping build AI systems grounded in disciplined, accurate forecasting and insight.