Senior Manager, Loss Forecasting

Job DescriptionWhat is the opportunity?The Loss Forecast team within Portfolio Management and Credit Strategy (PMCS) at RBC is responsible for S3 PCL forecasting for the Canadian retail portfolio. The team provides Senior Management in Risk Management, Finance, Business Units, and Investor Relations with expert analysis and guidance on the Bank’s provisions for credit losses (PCL).As the Senior Manager, you will be a subject matter expert for S3 PCL, working closely with model development teams and credit risk experts to understand drivers of changes in PCL and deliver valued analysis.What will you do?Develop, monitor, and maintain S3 PCL loss forecasting models to support regulatory compliance and business objectives.Work with measurement, reporting and modeling team members to understand the assumptions used in calculation and reporting of credit provisioning, analyze results and help troubleshoot and resolve issues affecting the production of reporting responsibilities.Maintain strong communication with functional and business partners for timely identification and escalation of issues affecting credit provisioning resultsAnalyze large and complex datasets to uncover trends, risk indicators, and key drivers of credit loss.Collaborate closely with risk, credit, analytics, and finance teams to ensure forecasts are aligned and actionable.Prepare detailed reports and presentations for senior leadership, summarizing findings and recommendations.Track model performance, conduct regular audits, and implement enhancements to improve accuracy and reliability.Ensure all models meet regulatory standards and adhere to internal policies and procedures.Support ongoing recalibration, documentation, and continuous improvement of forecasting models.What do you need to succeed? Must-haveMinimum 5 years of experience in loss forecasting, credit risk modeling, or related analytical roles. Master’s degree in Finance, Statistics, Mathematics, or a related field.Advanced analytical and statistical skills, with hands-on experience in developing and validating forecasting models.Proficiency in Python, R, and Excel for data analysis, automation, and model development.Strong business acumen and deep understanding of credit risk and financial processes in Retail banking.Excellent communication skills, with the ability to present complex findings clearly to senior stakeholders.Quick learner with outstanding conceptual, analytical, and problem-solving skills, with an ability to deliver under pressure.Nice-to-haveKnowledge of IFRS9 and regulatory requirements related to credit loss forecasting.Experience with data visualization tools such as Power BI or Tableau to enhance reporting and insights. What’s in it for you?We thrive on the challenge to be our best, progressive thinking to keep growing, and working together to deliver trusted advice to help our clients thrive and communities prosper. We care about each other, reaching our potential, making a difference to our communities, and achieving success that is mutual.A comprehensive Total Rewards Program including bonuses and flexible benefits, competitive compensationLeaders who support your development through coaching and managing opportunitiesWork in a dynamic, collaborative, progressive, and high-performing teamOpportunities to do challenging workFlexible work/life balance optionsJob SkillsAnalytics, Business Data Analysis, Collaborating, Credit Analysis, Credit Risks, Critical Thinking, Data Analysis, Database Queries, Data Visualization, Decision Making, Long Term Planning, Operational Delivery, Portfolio Management, Quantitative Methods, Risk Management, Risk Modeling, StatisticsAdditional Job DetailsAddress:RBC WATERPARK PLACE, 88 QUEENS QUAY W:TORONTOCity:TorontoCountry:CanadaWork hours/week:37.5Employment Type:Full timePlatform:GROUP RISK MANAGEMENTJob Type:RegularPay Type:SalariedPosted Date:2026-01-26Application Deadline:2026-02-07Note: Applications will be accepted until 11:59 PM on the day prior to the application deadline date aboveInclusion and Equal Opportunity EmploymentAt RBC, we believe an inclusive workplace that has diverse perspectives is core to our continued growth as one of the largest and most successful banks in the world. Maintaining a workplace where our employees feel supported to perform at their best, effectively collaborate, drive innovation, and grow professionally helps to bring our Purpose to life and create value for our clients and communities. RBC strives to deliver this through policies and programs intended to foster a workplace based on respect, belonging and opportunity for all.Join our Talent CommunityStay in-the-know about great career opportunities at RBC. Sign up and get customized info on our latest jobs, career tips and Recruitment events that matter to you.Expand your limits and create a new future together at RBC. Find out how we use our passion and drive to enhance the well-being of our clients and communities at jobs.rbc.com.RBC is presently inviting candidates to apply for this existing vacancy. Applying to this posting allows you to express your interest in this current career opportunity at RBC. Qualified applicants may be contacted to review their resume in more detail.